H O W A R D S B E N D

“We are getting madder by the minute!!” This phrase does not really work when hundreds, if not, thousands of lives are at risk everyday. It is time to act. The Russian invasion into Ukraine is bogged down and the Russian military is now targeting civilian population centers trying to intimidate the Ukrainian people into submission as their defending army is holding off the Russian military advance. As we have all seen on the news every night, the city of Mariupol has taken the brunt of the Russian bombing, and a once beautiful port city has been reduced to a massive rubble. Hundreds of thousands of people are trapped in bomb shelters with provisions rapidly depleting, unable to escape as Russians artillery fires on them as they try to find a safe way out of the city.

The world no longer wants to hear that “NATO is strong and standing together,” something akin to “you are in our thoughts and prayers.” Ukraine borders directly with four NATO countries. It is a country that has asked to join the Alliance several times, most recently, just last summer. The Alliance delayed Ukraine’s admission into NATO for several political reasons, but we still have to ask ourselves, “Are Ukrainian lives less important that lives in NATO nations?” It is time for NATO to act.

The leaders of the NATO Alliance are meeting in Brussels this week. NATO should announce that they will immediately be conducting a humanitarian evacuation of the innocent civilians trapped in the city of Mariupol. NATO will send a fleet of Navy boats to the port of Mariupol. This evacuation will incur as soon as the flotilla can arrive at the port. An immediate ceasefire should be announced throughout the city. Russia must honor the ceasefire. Any violation of the ceasefire by Russia will be deemed a direct attack on NATO and will bring about an appropriate military response by the Alliance. The ceasefire shall be in place as long as the evacuation continues. This declaration by NATO will give a pause to the constant air strikes on Mariupol and allow innocent civilians the chance to escape onto the waiting ships of the NATO Navy.

This declaration by NATO is essential this week so that we can begin to bring relief to the several hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped in Mariupol. We have let Putin dictate to the world the terms of this invasion. We cannot let Putin intimidate us into a passive responses when so many lives are at risk. We can then use these ceasefire talks as a starting point for a broader and more lasting ceasefire in the region.

I am a devout atheist. I started having doubts about the Almighty and His grand plan in my early teens as I started seeing the world as chaotic, unfair and destructive. This all came to a head as I watched my aunt, who was a very kind and gentle person and a nurse by trade, die a horribly slow and painful death with her battle with cancer. Throw in the Vietnam War, famine, drought and starvation and I could no longer believe in a Devine Order. I haven’t changed my views on the subject since I was 16.

In the mid-1970s after college, I went on one of those existential trips to Europe with no itinerary, no timetable and no suitcase and very little money. My means of travel was hitchhiking and after a while, I became quite proficient in this form of travel (there is a definite technique to succeed with this kind of transportation, but that is for another essay). I had been traveling about 8 months by myself going city to city, staying at youth hostels and meeting temporary companions along the way with whom I would visit the local sightseeing attractions or share in local meals. I missed the deeper bonds of a good friendship, so I called a friend back in the States who I knew would be embarking on a similar trip in a month so and suggested that we meet up and travel some together. We agreed two months in advance to meet on a Sunday in mid June 1976 at 6:00 PM in Paris in front of Notre Dame.

This was 1976. So after that phone call, I had absolutely no way to get in touch with him as there were no cell phones and neither he nor I had a fixed itinerary. I happened to be in Amsterdam the week before that fateful Sunday. I saw that Paris was a little over 300 miles away and decided to get on the road by 10:00 AM for this 6-hour drive (I was feeling pretty good about my hitchhiking skills only to need a two-hour cushion). I am not sure how I got out of the city and made it to the highway A-1 or A-10 or something like that, but I do remember looking at my watch and thinking I was in good shape. After a few minutes on the highway with my thumb out, I was amazed that there was no traffic. I was out there all alone. There was NO traffic at all! It was as if the world was in the midst of a horrible pandemic (this might be an anachronism).

I was standing waiting all alone on this abandoned highway when suddenly I saw a old, beat-up VW van approaching. I was confident that I am on my way. The van stopped, of course, and I was invited in. The van was inhabited by 6 hippy-looking individuals aged somewhere between late teens and mid-twenties and they all spoke English quite well, however with that little Dutch accent. I asked how far they are going and they told me that they are headed to a religious festival in Breda which is only a little more than an hour away and still in the Netherlands. Of course they were very interested in an American about their age and I was bombarded with a series of questions about the Vietnam War, popular American music bands, the extermination of the American Indian population during the American expansion West and then on to religion. They were fascinated that I am Jewish, but no longer a believer. They asked my opinion of Jesus and I answered quite honestly that I had no opinion as I had never really thought about the man, or Savior (dependent on your personal perspective). Oh, they wanted to tell me all about Jesus and all He can do to improve the world and all that He might do to make me a happier and more content individual. I told them that unfortunately I don’t believe, so that it would be hard to just let Jesus into my life. They told me that I needed to “challenge” Jesus so that he could reveal Himself to me. So I said, “OK, I want Jesus to make the world a better place.” They all smiled and said, “No, make it personal so there is no doubt about Jesus’ power to touch your life.” I said OK, this might sound petty, but, “I want Jesus to send me a car after you drop me off that will take me right to Paris and I don’t want to wait more than 10 minutes for that car to come along.” They told me that is “great” and are confident that Jesus will hear my challenge. As we approached their exit, they implored me to come to the festival and learn more about Jesus from all those that will be attending. I politely declined, and then one individual wrote down his address made me promise to send him a note if Jesus answered my challenge. I agreed and got out of the van.

It was now a little after 11:00 AM and the road was still totally abandoned. Not a car in sight. I looked at my watch to begin the 10 minute countdown. After 5 minutes, there were still no cars to be seen. Suddenly, on the horizon a lone car is coming my way. At the 6 minute and 30 second mark of the countdown, the car pulls over and the driver asked where I was going and I said Paris and he said, “Get in, this is your lucky day.” I beat my friend to Notre Dame by an hour.

Well, 46 years later and I still consider myself an atheist, although an atheist with a slight bit of doubt of my convictions. I have thought about this incident several times and have come to the conclusion that for certain individuals or groups of people looking for “meaning” and a “higher purpose”, these “miraculous” events fit their narrative. For example…..it has not rained in many, many days, let’s pray to God for rain…..no rain today, let’s pray again tonight……no rain again, let’s pray again. Finally rain, it’s a miracle. Jesus answers our prayers. Let’s pray grandpop gets better. Grandpop is better, it’s a miracle. Let’s pray that a car comes along on a quiet Sunday morning on a major highway between two major cities during the pinnacle of the “hippy” and “hitchhiking” era and then claim that is a miracle that the car stopped to help out a fellow human being. It is easy to believe that the prayer was answered, but let’s say right after that I immediately prayed to find an envelope with thousands of dollars on the ground right in front of me. I doubt that would have happened and my prayers would not have been answered and I would again doubt religion. We need to pick a prayer that could possibly be answered.

In hindsight, my only regret is that I did not write to the group in the van and let them know that a car did come by within the 10 minute period and take me to Paris. I am pretty confident that I would have been able to deduce their conclusion.

Now is time to jump on this unique opportunity. Close the deal.

As Russia continues it invasion on Ukraine, the world looks to impose severe sanctions on Russia. But, in order to truly cripple the Russian economy, there must be sanctions on Russia oil and gas exports.

Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which account for about 60% of the country’s exports. Russia was the world’s third-largest oil producer in 2020, producing over 10 million barrels of oil a day, or 11% of the world’s total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Russia exports about 5 million barrels a day of crude plus 3 million barrels of refined products. These exports must be shutdown to truly bring down the Russian economy.

Iran is pumping about 2.5 million barrels per day, some 1.3 million barrels per day less than in 2018 when former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear accord and re-imposed sanctions, drastically cutting Tehran’s oil income. Iran is strongly motivated to have the sanctions lifted. Iran can quickly increase its oil production. This additional production will help offset the loss of Russian oil on the world markets. A Biden administration official claims that the six-month negotiations over the nuclear deal were entering their “final stretch,” though a full agreement that leads to unimpeded Iranian oil exports may not be implemented for months. What is the delay? Both sides should be extremely motivated to get the deal done and the new treaty signed. There should be around-the-clock negotiations until the deal is finalized.” Both the Russians and the Chinese have been negotiating with Iran to make large investments to help Iran achieve an even higher level of oil production. Russia is obviously unable at this time to commit to further investments in Iran. Once the new nuclear deal is finalized, UIS companies should jump in and assist Ian with this expanded oil production.

What is the delay in finalizing this new non nuclear proliferation agreement? We already had a previous deal that worked for all parties involved. Get the deal done.

One might say, “We have a liquidity problem”. A recent government report shows in the USA there is between $1.5 and $2 trillion more liquidity in personal accounts than there was at the start of the pandemic in early 2020.

There are several reasons for this build-up of liquidity over the past two years. First, there was the lockdown in the early phases of the pandemic and most people stayed at home and continued to work drawing a salary with no way to significantly spend this earned money. Even as restrictions were loosened, there were still not the opportunities to spend money shopping or on travel and or on other social activities. In addition, in March 2020, the federal government passed the CARES Act which provided $600 billion to small business to keep them afloat and to help them maintain there current payroll. These funds eventually made it to individuals with the same restriction on spending. CARES, also the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program (FPUC), provided an additional $600 per week to individuals who were collecting regular state funded unemployment insurance. All thee factors pumped up personal savings. And finally, the Federal Reserve pumped several trillion dollars into the economy through Quantitative Easing by which the Fed prints money to go out into the market to buy bonds from big institutions for cash pumping this additional money into the economy, some eventually makes into personal bank accounts.

We are now at the point where the pandemic is winding down and individuals are ready to go out and spend to and make up for lost time. However, the economy is plagued with shortages of all kinds of items as factories let their inventory rundown during the pandemic and are now finding it difficult to ramp up as they are having trouble getting parts and materials needed for their manufacturing process. These factories are having trouble finding employees to work in their plants. Transportation is also plagued with all kinds of labor shortages so items are not getting to and from manufacturing locations. This is the supply-side issues we hear are plaguing the economy.

So, we are at a point of heightened demand with supply shortages. As we all learned in school when demand exceeds supply prices will rise. It is now time to take money out of the economy to ease some of this excess demand without hurting the economy. The traditional rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve make it more expensive for businesses to borrow driving up their cost and eventually raising prices to compensate. This hike in interest rates is intended tp slow the economy. Higher rates slow the housing markets as mortgage rates rise. Housing growth is a key part of our economic growth. Thus, Federal Reserve rate hikes ease inflation by slowing down the growth of the economy.

I am suggesting a “Quantitative Tightening”. In this scenario, the government offers personal saving bonds at much higher rates than are now available in the market. As a starting point, I might suggest 3% on three year bonds, 5% on five year bonds and something like 7% on a ten year bond and possibly 12% on twenty year bonds. These high personal saving rates will encourage people with large amount of cash in the personal accounts to purchase these bonds. The personal saving rates offered today are so low that people do not commit to long-term saving and instead go out into the marketplace to spend this growing cash account. These high rates hopefully encourage people to save for the future and remove a large portion of the $1.5 to $2 trillion in excess liquidity out of personal savings, lowering demand for goods and thus easing inflationary pressure while having people still fill optimistic about their personal wealth knowing that they are earning a high rate of return on their savings. This should allow for the economy to continue to grow without the inflationary pressures.